McPain

Perhaps Obama's in a little trouble. Obviously, he's had a good week. The national polls have shown him with a 4-7 point swing since last week, owing to McCain's shoddy performance. Yet, on an electoral college basis, the race remains tight. For all his gains, Obama is still generally 1 state away from defeat.

Some may counter-argue that Obama is also close to victory in more states. True, and even North Carolina and Virginia are rumored to be in play now. However, today the Sunday punditry estimated a 2-3% Bradley effect for McCain this year. And as previously noted, the GOP continues to master voter suppression techniques.

Bottom line: if a good week for Obama doesn't put him into a solid lead, what will bad weeks do?