Obama is getting a bump from the focus on finance and the waning of the GOP convention bounce. The prediction markets now have him with a slight 50-49 lead (odds of winning).
Looking at the polls, it appears that Colorado is the tipping point in this year's election, just as Ohio was in 2004 and Florida in 2000. By "tipping point" I mean that it appears that if Obama wins CO he'll win the election, and if he loses CO he will likely lose the election.
The counter-argument to this assertion is that Obama is treating each swing state as an individual "senate election" which means that any of the swing states may be within reach and certainly Virginia, Ohio and Florida are all in play (and may be needed if McCain can pull Michigan or Pennsylvania away).
No comments:
Post a Comment