Nothing flash. Just thoughtful commonsense canon:
http://www.myprops.org/content/Video-Joseph-Stiglitz-This-is-worse-than-the-Great-Depression/
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Sunday, February 8, 2009
Friday, January 9, 2009
Fighting the lobby culture
Paul and Kucinich are the only Congress-critters to speak up for Palestine.
My view is that Kucinich, Paul, and Feingold have been the only Congress-folks capable of truly independent truth-telling. It is my hope that Franken can be a 4th.
Note that it is by now a mainstream meme that the Israeli government can adopt a more pro-Palestinian posture than is acceptable by the US political power structure. This is perhaps why Pat Buchanan called the US Congress "Israeli occupied territory."
My view is that Kucinich, Paul, and Feingold have been the only Congress-folks capable of truly independent truth-telling. It is my hope that Franken can be a 4th.
Note that it is by now a mainstream meme that the Israeli government can adopt a more pro-Palestinian posture than is acceptable by the US political power structure. This is perhaps why Pat Buchanan called the US Congress "Israeli occupied territory."
Friday, November 7, 2008
The election: where are we at
True, Obama won. Still, there are several Senate and Congressional seats undecided and at least one proposition worth discussing.
First Obama's Victory. It looks like 365-173 on the EV. Impressive. 65 million for Obama and a 6% victory: 52.6-46.1. Impressive, I suppose. On the other hand it's scary that 57 million people thought electing a Republican President was a good idea in 2008. That's very troubling. Bush got 60 million votes in 2004, so there's (presumably) at least 3 million sentient Bush-2004 voters.
Senate. It looks like GA will go GOP in a run off. I see Alaska as 55:45 for the GOP (80000 ballots still outstanding), and I see Minnesota as a toss-up. It's not clear why Alaska turnout was down 10% from 2004, confounding the pollsters, but apparently there's no funny business. Minnesota is so close (234 votes) that I don't think a lead is suggestive of anything. Some agree.
Several House races remain uncalled as well so it's unclear what the final Democratic pick-up will be, but it looks like 20-25.
Proposition 8 passed in California which reverses a state Supreme Court affirmation of gay marriage rights. This narrow defeat is troubling. What's not clear is whether prop 8 is legal. The odds are against a reversal of law, but there is a strong case to be made that reversing an earlier state Supreme Court decision is a revision requiring 2/3 legislative approval rather than a mere amendment requiring 50% of a referendum vote. The measure passed by 52-48. No doubt the court will take this up promptly.
First Obama's Victory. It looks like 365-173 on the EV. Impressive. 65 million for Obama and a 6% victory: 52.6-46.1. Impressive, I suppose. On the other hand it's scary that 57 million people thought electing a Republican President was a good idea in 2008. That's very troubling. Bush got 60 million votes in 2004, so there's (presumably) at least 3 million sentient Bush-2004 voters.
Senate. It looks like GA will go GOP in a run off. I see Alaska as 55:45 for the GOP (80000 ballots still outstanding), and I see Minnesota as a toss-up. It's not clear why Alaska turnout was down 10% from 2004, confounding the pollsters, but apparently there's no funny business. Minnesota is so close (234 votes) that I don't think a lead is suggestive of anything. Some agree.
Several House races remain uncalled as well so it's unclear what the final Democratic pick-up will be, but it looks like 20-25.
Proposition 8 passed in California which reverses a state Supreme Court affirmation of gay marriage rights. This narrow defeat is troubling. What's not clear is whether prop 8 is legal. The odds are against a reversal of law, but there is a strong case to be made that reversing an earlier state Supreme Court decision is a revision requiring 2/3 legislative approval rather than a mere amendment requiring 50% of a referendum vote. The measure passed by 52-48. No doubt the court will take this up promptly.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Down the financial road
A "traditional" "great depression" combines high unemployment, negative inflation, and a stock market slump.
My fear/suspicion is that we're not in the middle of that. This link captures my notion that the stock market slump is just a prelude to serious inflation. The counterargument would be that sucking $20 trillion+ out of the economy through stock market and housing losses would more than compensate for any inflationary pressure from a $2 trillion rescue plan.
My fear/suspicion is that we're not in the middle of that. This link captures my notion that the stock market slump is just a prelude to serious inflation. The counterargument would be that sucking $20 trillion+ out of the economy through stock market and housing losses would more than compensate for any inflationary pressure from a $2 trillion rescue plan.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Election status report
Obama took a commanding lead; the race tightened somewhat. Now it appears that Obama is holding steady with a significant advantage, albeit smaller than his largest lead.
Prediction markets peg an Obama victory at a likelihood of 84% and give 364 as the over/under
on his electoral vote count.
Five-thirty-eight gives Obama a 92.5% chance of victory with 344 projected EVs. Furthermore 538 currently projects Democratic Senate pickups in all major battles including: MN, NC, OR and AK.
On the newspaper endorsement front, Obama leads 112 to 39. (Kerry barely beat Bush in 2004 in newspaper endorsements). At least 25 papers endorsed Bush in 2004, but Obama in 2008.
The election is 14 days away and there's not alot of opportunity for McCain to convert voters barring an extraordinary event.
Prediction markets peg an Obama victory at a likelihood of 84% and give 364 as the over/under
on his electoral vote count.
Five-thirty-eight gives Obama a 92.5% chance of victory with 344 projected EVs. Furthermore 538 currently projects Democratic Senate pickups in all major battles including: MN, NC, OR and AK.
On the newspaper endorsement front, Obama leads 112 to 39. (Kerry barely beat Bush in 2004 in newspaper endorsements). At least 25 papers endorsed Bush in 2004, but Obama in 2008.
The election is 14 days away and there's not alot of opportunity for McCain to convert voters barring an extraordinary event.
Ride it out
The founder of Vanguard, John Bogle, says to ride out the stock market: i.e. don't panic-sell. Bogle is one of the good guys with a sound investment philosophy.
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