True, Obama won. Still, there are several Senate and Congressional seats undecided and at least one proposition worth discussing.
First Obama's Victory. It looks like 365-173 on the EV. Impressive. 65 million for Obama and a 6% victory: 52.6-46.1. Impressive, I suppose. On the other hand it's scary that 57 million people thought electing a Republican President was a good idea in 2008. That's very troubling. Bush got 60 million votes in 2004, so there's (presumably) at least 3 million sentient Bush-2004 voters.
Senate. It looks like GA will go GOP in a run off. I see Alaska as 55:45 for the GOP (80000 ballots still outstanding), and I see Minnesota as a toss-up. It's not clear why Alaska turnout was down 10% from 2004, confounding the pollsters, but apparently there's no funny business. Minnesota is so close (234 votes) that I don't think a lead is suggestive of anything. Some agree.
Several House races remain uncalled as well so it's unclear what the final Democratic pick-up will be, but it looks like 20-25.
Proposition 8 passed in California which reverses a state Supreme Court affirmation of gay marriage rights. This narrow defeat is troubling. What's not clear is whether prop 8 is legal. The odds are against a reversal of law, but there is a strong case to be made that reversing an earlier state Supreme Court decision is a revision requiring 2/3 legislative approval rather than a mere amendment requiring 50% of a referendum vote. The measure passed by 52-48. No doubt the court will take this up promptly.
2 comments:
Silly me. Rather than making guesses on Minnesota and Alaska I should have just quoted the prediction markets. I was surprised:
AK-Sen: Democrat is a 5:4 favorite
to win
MN-Sen: Democrat is 3:5 underdog
MN-Sen: Franken has moved up to a 15:17 underdog. Perhaps I was a little bit ahead of the markets on this.
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