Looking forward

It appears the McCain-Palin bounce is over. It's not clear whether there will be a strong drift back to Obama, a stabilization, or a further drift back to McCain. In a sense, the next two weeks don't matter: there's 50 days until the election. Some events that will shape the election in the next 50 days are unpredictable. I offer this educated guess on those elements that we know about:

The Presidential Debates
Neither McCain nor Obama are good debaters. McCain sticks to stiff talking points and Obama drones on. McCain wins the expectations game, however (as did Bush 43) since Obama's
speech-giving oratory is so much better than McCain's. The downside risk for McCain is that
he's more apt to make a gaffe (Obama's long-windedness protects him somewhat here). Two elements favor Obama. First, if the debates are substantive he has the advantage by virtue of the last 8 years of Republican disaster. Second, McCain has taken a sharp line ethically with some of his recent charges, and he looks a little unnatural trying to support arguments that he knows are B.S. Slight advantage to Obama

The Vice-Presidential Debate
A crapshoot. Biden could lose in three ways: one of his trademark gaffes, sexism or expectations. No, Biden won't be sexist, but the MSM has laid the groundwork for that charge so that Biden has to be extra careful to avoid the sexism charge. The expectations game is also a challenge. Biden knows so much more than Palin about policy that Democrats are expecting a thumping. This, unfortunately, sets up a meme for the MSM that favors Palin: all she has to do is hold her own. It should be noted however that Biden is capable of the home run as well. Palin also has both up and downside. The MSM is on the look out for signs of vacuousness. On the other hand she nailed it at the GOP convention so she may have set up expectations of her own, not so much with the MSM as with the viewers.

Fundamentals
The major funamentals of this election favor the democrats. This will be a huge advantage for them going forward. Right now McCain snuck through the Palin nomination and it might work. But in doing so, McCain (and Palin) had to "stretch" the truth in ways that clearly make him uncomfortable as a speaker and vulnerable as a politician. McCain simply doesn't look good when he's defending some of the nonsense his campaign has put forward. These fundamentals should favor the democrats in GOTV, but they also will influence "neutral" media's coverage of the event. Jay Leno, for instance, has a much harder time finding material for Obama, but by pushing the edge in their own narrative and their attacks on Obama, McCain and Palin provide plenty of material. SNL, as well.

True, prediction markets favor McCain right now and the GOP has a successful voter suppression machine, but I'd rather be in Obama's position now than McCain's.